Don't mess with this lady

August 27th, 2005

The conditions look very good for Hurricane Katrina to be a very nasty affair when it hits land. There's little or no shear to tear it apart, and the water in the Gulf is bathtub hot. If it hits on or near New Orleans, well, this is about the most Not Good of the Not Good scenarios.

From Wunderground's Dr. Jeff Masters' weblog:

I'd hate to be an Emergency Management official in New Orleans right now. Katrina is pretty much following the NHC forecast, and appears likely to pass VERY close to New Orleans. I'm surprised they haven't ordered an evacuation of the city yet. While the odds of a catastropic hit that would completely flood the city of New Orleans are probably 10%, that is way too high in my opinion to justify leaving the people in the city. If I lived in the city, I would evactuate NOW! There is a very good reason that the Coroner's office in New Orleans keeps 10,000 body bags on hand. The risks are too great from this storm, and a weekend away from the city would be nice anyway, right? GO! New Orleans needs a full 72 hours to evacuate, and landfall is already less than 72 hours away. Get out now and beat the rush. You're not going to have to go to work or school on Monday anyway. If an evacuation is ordered, not everyone who wants to get out may be able to do so–particularly the 60,000 poor people with no cars.

Comments
1
Jim Dermitt - 4:02 am 8/28/2005

I have friend in the military reserves and he went down to Florida with his unit to assist with security after the last big hurricanes. I was watching Gov. Bush testify before the BRAC Commission about base closings. He was talking about doing real estate deals where the Florida military bases would be closed. The military is vital, when there are people here in the United States that need help. We just got our hometown Air Force base off of the BRAC list, so it's been a good weekend.

2
Jerry - 6:31 am 8/28/2005

From Dr. Masters' this morning:

New Orleans finally got serious and ordered an evacuation, but far too late. There is no way everyone will be able to get out of the city in time, and they may be forced to take shelter in the Superdome, which is above sea level. If Katrina makes a direct hit on New Orleans as a Category 4 hurricane, the levees protecting the city will be breached, and New Orleans, which is 6 - 10 feet below sea level, will fill with water. On top of this 6 feet of water will come a 15 foot storm surge, and on top of that will be 20 foot waves, so the potential for high loss of life is great. Given the current track and intensity forecast, I'd put the odds of this at about 20%.

3
Sophie - 6:46 am 8/28/2005

I know most of the US government don't believe in global warming, but how do people who live in New Orleans feel about it ?
Like people living in Netherlands or Venice, a small increase in sea levels must increase lots of threats their city has to deal with, and I wonder how the dikes or levees are maintained. Are there plans to increase their height, is the city planning taking this into account by maybe trying to encourage building above sea level ?

4
Shelley - 7:23 am 8/28/2005

Jerry, in my opinion the mayor of New Orleans, the governor of Louisiana, and the director of FEMA should all resign for their irresponsible and arrogant handling of this hurricane. The models began to converge on the New Orleans area Thursday night. And they still don't know if they want to force mandatory evacuation of the city. Arrogant stupidity.

I read in one story about some bar staying open regular hours. Oh we'll just take it as she comes, they say.

We'll rush to body search people in subways in New York at the slight possibility of a terrorist, and then we'll sit out on a balcony as a level 4 or 5 hurricane heads straight toward us.

Un-be-lievable.

Sophie, the American way seems to be now to trust in God rather than science or engineering, so who knows what they'll do.

Sorry if I sound angry — but I can't believe, I am absolutely astonished at how poorly this has been handled, and is still being handled.

5
Sophie - 2:42 pm 8/28/2005

Well… some people have thought about what could be done, but the article is none the less chilling.

http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=9754

Thanks to all those who have contributed to the discussion. Comments are now closed, but you can contact the author of the post directly.

Prev: Modern Marvels
Next: A Will and a Big Water